Happy Holidays. USD/CAD

Happy Holidays.  I hope you had a great Thanksgiving and hope you took the trade set up on the USD/CAD.  As I posted before, if the USD/CAD broke the 1.1850 it would be a good entry, well it most certainly was.  Right now that trade is up 175 pips.  I am a little leery of the upcoming FOMC meeting Thursday.  My take on the market is, for the first time in over a year, we are not certain of a rate increase.  An increase would be a pleasant boost to the dollar bulls, a non increase to rates could give the USD the beating many have been expecting for months now.  The USD/CAD could drive down to the original target near 1.1520 if rates are not raised, but I am not willing to lose my 175 pips. I will be tightening my stop loss today to 100 pips from the close and potentially tighter tomorrow afternoon ahead of the announcement.  

The Eur/Cad trade is up 240 pips.  I am readjusting this stop loss to the highs for the last 2 days at about 1.3880.  This only locks in 90 pips but it allows for the volatility that the Euro has shown.

The Eur/Aud has paid out the $1 a day per mini contract.  Since the open of the trade at 1.6023.  So now we have 20 days of interest (0% return on a 2% margin account) plus 85 pips to boot.  I am a little uncertain about this trade.  The US changing or not changing rates will affect the Euro and the AUD differently.  I am readjusting the stop loss on this trade to 1.6023.  If I get taken out of the trade, I got paid the interest, if not and the pair continues flat or drops further I am golden.

We also looked at the head and shoulders on the GBP/USD.  I would like to say that I took this trade, but then I would be lying.  If you had taken this trade, you would have been up about 180 pips.  I did not take the trade and now that we are ahead of the FOMC announcement, I wouldn’t chase the trade.  Take a look at the chart, you will see today being a significant bearish day for the GBP.  Purely based on technicals, this appears to be testing the neck line and could be a good entry short on the GBP/USD.  Once again, I am not comfortable with the trade.

We are still in the Eur/Usd.  We never hit our stop nor our limit.  Currently we are up all of 20 pips.  I will be tightening this stop right up against tomorrows high, before Thursday’s announcement.

For those keeping track, we are doing rather well with our trades.  Based on the postings, I don’t include my scalping; we have profited about 510 pips.  Adding the interest earned and risking no more than 5% in any one trade, based on the stop losses, the account is up 25.4%.  Not too bad for a month of trading with minimal risk.

Last thought and I have said it before, “THE LONGER I TRADE, THE LONGER I TRADE”.  Some of these trades are 3 weeks old.