Thursday, October 25, 2007

When is the end of this scalp trade?

Watch for the down trend to end? Simple enough right? Wrong? Which down trend? The fib fan line? The longer term trend line? Here are the lines I am watching right now.

A continuation here is expected but a strong support lies at .9630. A sold resistance sits near .9700 and the longer term resistance stands at .9800. Keeping with the terminology here, put your trade to rest at support where it lies. Sit tight at the intermediate resistance and stand and run away if we break above the .9800 from along term point of view (or stand firm at .9800 for another selling opportunity, whatever you like best there).

This is a fun little exercise of analyzing a short term trade. The way I look at trading in general is this... it took me as much money in spread and even more time, focus and energy to trade this scalp as it did the trade I shorted at 1.0000 a few weeks ago. So for my time, focus and energy, and really for my money, I'll go with the long term trade. Some of these will line up in the future as this has but I won't be discussing them nearly as much.

Rocky VI - "Never Say Brain Damage"

He's he's up... he's down. The Usd has taken it's lumps over the past weeks and like a tough hardened boxer...he doesn't know when to stay down. And you thought I would say something about it being strong and never ending just too many hits to the head to know better. So the USD/CAD has been down and up and down and up again over the past 3 days. A break and close above the .9670 mark would make me think a move back to .9710 would be very likely. Another bounce and I think we could see the break below .9620 which has acted as support at least 4 times already.

Wednesday, October 24, 2007

What did I tell you?

It is question day here at Random Acts. I feel like I am giving out all the generic chastisements. First what do you want and now what did I tell you? So what did I tell you? I told you to sell the Usd/Cad about 4 1/2 hours ago at a price near .9720 for a scalp trade. The price is now at .9688. If you listened and followed the trade you have two choices. One get out near .9680 for a quick 40 pip trade or if it moves through .9670 hold on to it for a move down toward .9615-ish by sometime tonight or early morning tomorrow. It could happen quicker but it is hard to predict both price and time of day.

In essence I am watching for the cross below the fib fan for a continuation and a move down to a collision of longer term trend lines and older fib fan lines as the next target. If it bounces here, I would consider an exit of the scalp trade.

Longer term traders following the previous posts, disregard this post. This is a scalp trade. Don't confuse the two.

What do you want?

So here is the question of the day, I would like responses in the comments, as many as you would like to place is fine, anonymous or otherwise. What would you like to see here. I am going to continue to add my trades and my analysis, but what is it that interests you as a individuals and as a group?

Are you interested in the in depth fundamental pontifications like the deciphering of the BoE? Pure technical trades? Scalp-ish trades ?( I usually won't post too much that way but sell the USD/CAD today off the .9720 level). Longer term trades like I usually look at?(5 weeks on the 2 trades we are in for a lovely profit right now). Wise cracks with pertinent commentary? (I like doing that but some don't like reading it)

What do you want? Post it the comments please.

and Thank You