Saturday, July 21, 2007

Never Never Never let them see you sweat

Were you sweating before the weekend. Looking at the 8 hour chart you can see a range of 180 pips in the 8 morning hours. watching your potential or initial gains go from $100 down to a loss and then back to profitable in that short time period can make you nervous and make you sweat. Remember your initial analysis. The arrow is roughly where most of us got into the trade. The "small" intra-day moves don't matter in the big picture of your trade. If you are going to take a stand, stand your ground. Things are looking about where I would want it to be or expect it to be at this point. Have a good weekend.

Thursday, July 19, 2007

Kiwi video at the bottom of the page

For a 3 minute break check out the video at the bottom of the page.

mmmm Golden Kiwis

The Gbp/Nzd trade continues to test both upside and downside in the short term. I will feel much more confident of a big profitable trade if we can get a solid close below the 2.5700 area. Gold is on a move and has done so strongly finding support and breaking the downward resistance trend line. This could be a bonus to the Gbp/Nzd trade as well as the Aud/Jpy, Nzd/Jpy, Aud/Chf, Aud/Usd or just gold. There is still room to move to the top side.

Any other Gold traders out there besides me???

Wednesday, July 18, 2007

Letting my mullet down

Back by popular demand, here is the trucker picture. Yes that is me, yes that is my real flannel, yes that is my real stash.

How 'bout now?

How 'bout now, can I trade it how 'bout bout now...and now?

So what do you do when it is near either a break out in a short term uptrend or resistance in longer term trend. GO WITH THE LONGER TERM TRADE!!!

I like the risk level now. It is about where it was yesterday as it is testing this 60 pip range going back and forth. A short position near 2.5880 with a stop up about 2.6100 seems like huge risk. Remember that the risk is 220 pips at about a 80 cents per pip or $176 per mini contract and realistically if I see a solid move beyond 2.5900, I will watch for an early exit. There is a solid resistance near 2.60 as well. These are all key levels to moderate risk for the potential target. If you are only risking the move to 2.60 that is about $100. Potential target...2.5560, 320 pips, $256. 2.5:1 risk to reward.

Tuesday, July 17, 2007

It is time we met.

If you would like to sign up for this community, we can share pictures, thoughts and trades. Join the community down at the bottom right and let's meet.

GBP/NZD still a good short?

I had an email questioning whether someone in GBP/NZD trade short could hang on to the trade. It is easier for me to show my point using my blog with some images so here we are.

First, it depends on where you got into the trade. If you went short and sold near resistance (at 2.6100) you are still very profitable, if you got in the trade lower and losing money you are probably struggling right now and looking to get out.

Second, it doesn't matter where you got into the trade, either it is a good trade now or it isn't. If you are in the trade now where do you see resistance. Money gained or lost in the trade at this point has nothing to do with the current set up.

I see the resistances at 2.6100, 2.5870 and 2.5880. Any of these points could be considered for shorting opportunities. You may note that we are at or near the lowest resistance level listed which correlates to the consolidation and resistance level 4-5 days ago and the support level tested on June 28th. I like this position from a risk stand point but I like this pair has a tendency to give large shadows and test your tolerance of larger stop losses. If you aren't short a position here with a 125 pip stop seems appropriate. If we close beyond the fib fan and the 2.5900, I would still be comfortable selling it near the 2.6100 again. Low risk--Great Potential.

This pair is great for practicing your long term trading strategies and getting better at understanding risk to reward ratios.

Good luck and Good Trading.