Friday, January 13, 2006

Tightening stops before the weekend

USD/CAD really hasn't moved since the entry price. Tightening to 1.1675. EUR/AUD is paying us the interest so I won't be tightening it as much but still tightening to 1.6155.

Wednesday, January 11, 2006

Short the USD/CAD

Took the short position on the USD/CAD at 1.1620. 100 pip stop loss, targetting 1.1420 over the next 2 weeks. Resetting Eur/Aud short position to 1.6090

Tuesday, January 10, 2006

Quick scalp or long trade watch

For the aggressive scalper, you may be interested in jumping into the USD/CAD short for a 20 to 30 pip swing in an hour or so.  For the more conservative longer-term trader, watch for a close below 1.1600.  Remember this could be volatile due to Canadian elections.  I am still pro commodity-based currency pairs, such as the USD/CAD short and the AUD/USD long.  With a little push post elections, I would not be surprised to see the USD/CAD got to 1.1400 easily if not down to 1.1300 over the next 2 weeks.  Keep an eye on these commodity currencies

Monday, January 09, 2006

Give me break

It has been a volatile few weeks with few strong signals but now we are looking for some big move breakouts.

As you know I am a fan of trading the Eur/Aud short when I am justified to trade it short.  I have been waiting for this head and shoulders pattern to complete.  I wanted a close below 1.6130 and we got the close below yesterday. (see image below)

Because this pattern is looking for 200 pips and gets paid 1 pip a day in interest, I like the set up and continuation of the pattern today.  I am entered the trade at 1.6116.  Even though the pair has moved down significantly I would still feel comfortable with a 1.6042 entry and a target of 1.5920.  You will notice there are only 122 pips left in the move.  I still like it.  I am not putting a limit on this trade as of yet, but I will be adjusting my 125 pip stop loss as we get closer and into the pattern a little further.

I think we are going to have a great opportunity to short the USD/CAD in the next couple of days.  Keep an eye on that pair.

The GBP/JPY may be setting up a head and shoulders to go short.  If we close below 200.35 in the next week, we could hope for nearly 600 pip move on that pair.  If not a break down I will watch for a close above 204.50 and go for 300 pips plus interest to the top side.

Eur/Aud Head and Shoulders Posted by Picasa