Monday, March 01, 2010
The euro has traded in a 200-300 pip range over the past 20 days. The swings have been wide and volatile. This has been difficult to trade in the short term but is setting up for what may be the next big move. The consolidation is testing a longer term fib and short term fib levels. If price break through the 1.35 we expect price to drop 750 pips if not 1000 pips back to the previous annual support at 1.25.
Though some feel the problems with Greece or minuscule for the euro zone economy as a whole, this may be a symptom to a larger economic condition. Spain's debt was already down graded and Germany is discussing leaving the euro. If many more negatives appear economically, the euro zone may spin into a major downward trend and possibly a 50% correction.