Tuesday, July 24, 2007

Stopped out?

Were you stopped out? We have experienced a shadow up to 2.5738 which, depending on if you gave your trade any room from the 2.5700 resistance, you could still be in the trade but, more likely than not, you were stopped out.

Now What???

It's payback time of course. That's right get mad, show the Gbp/Nzd who is boss. Throw your money at it and see if it bleeds... oh wait, that's your blood...hmmm... scratch what I just said.

I am still bearish on the pair but now I have to wait for a good risk to reward again before I take the trade.

Is it here at the 2.5650 level? Only time will tell. Exactly 2 hours and 3 minutes to see if the close price takes me outside of my fib fan level and the resistance level. If not, I am good to watch for another entry. If it is closer higher, I like 2.5800 as a possible new short.

As fortune would have it, I am still in the trade and it got within 12 pips of stopping me out. If we close higher I will exit the trade with some profits and watch for the new entry.

If you got stopped out, cry me a river and wipe your eyes with dollar bills. You made about $140 per mini contract for a couple days of reading my blog.

Happy trading

You have two choices

To quote Morpheus from the matrix, "This is your last chance. After this, there is no turning back. You take the blue pill - the story ends, you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill - you stay in Wonderland and I show you how deep the rabbit-hole goes."
So here are your choices, the trade is profitable and you can walk away with 170 pips or you can tighten your stop and risk 100 pips of your trade to see how deep the rabbit hole goes.

I see a short term resistance level right where we are at and the next suppor level is our low we were at earlier today with a potential move closer to 2.5300. So even treating the trade as a new trade we are close to a 3 to 1 risk/reward ratio. A potentially good trade set up... or is it.
If you forget why we got in the trade and what were were looking at prior you can see the Gbp/Nzd short, original blog posting here.

Fixed Link

If one of my links doesn't work, please put it in the comments and I can fix it. Here is the link to the special report that probably didn't work for you you yesterday.

Click here for the special report page with the protective puts article.

For you options fans

The options addict link to the right is a great site for options traders. I personally stick to the forex in about 85% of my trading. If you want a fun site and good in site into the options world, consider Jeff Kohler's option addict blog.

Holding steady.

Dropping the stop loss to 2.5700. A close above 2.5600 will push me to a close or a break below 2.5450 will get me to stick to this trade for days and weeks to come.

Monday, July 23, 2007

Tightening one more time tonight

It's running nicely and I am using a fibonacci fan for the recent run and one from the last week and I am adjusting to where they cross roughly and where you can see my cross hairs. Stop tightened to 2.5800. I know this isn't a big adjustment but the previous stop tightening was temporary until I could further analyse the trade. I didn't like risking over 500 pips from the current price. I will be adjusting it again as soon as we get a 4 hour bullish candle.

Article on Protective Puts

Are you interested in hedging your long term trading strategies in the FOREX? My friend, John Jagerson, wrote an article on protective puts.

You can get to this free special report by clicking the link here or by going to the link on the right side of this page and then going to the special reports section of the PFX Global site.

If the links in the web page don't work for you , you may need to copy and paste the URL here.


Tightening the stop

I am not expecting to get out of this trade quite yet but I want to be protected from a big surprise. I am tightening my stop to 2.5830. This will lock in about 50 pips but remember the amount of profits locked in has nothing to do with where I am moving my stop loss to. I am moving the stop loss based on seeing the break out, going to the trending resistance line at the point of the break out and making it a tight stop to the candle just before the break out occurred. We will update this later after we see where this plays out over the next day or two.