Monday, January 09, 2006

Give me break

It has been a volatile few weeks with few strong signals but now we are looking for some big move breakouts.

As you know I am a fan of trading the Eur/Aud short when I am justified to trade it short.  I have been waiting for this head and shoulders pattern to complete.  I wanted a close below 1.6130 and we got the close below yesterday. (see image below)

Because this pattern is looking for 200 pips and gets paid 1 pip a day in interest, I like the set up and continuation of the pattern today.  I am entered the trade at 1.6116.  Even though the pair has moved down significantly I would still feel comfortable with a 1.6042 entry and a target of 1.5920.  You will notice there are only 122 pips left in the move.  I still like it.  I am not putting a limit on this trade as of yet, but I will be adjusting my 125 pip stop loss as we get closer and into the pattern a little further.

I think we are going to have a great opportunity to short the USD/CAD in the next couple of days.  Keep an eye on that pair.

The GBP/JPY may be setting up a head and shoulders to go short.  If we close below 200.35 in the next week, we could hope for nearly 600 pip move on that pair.  If not a break down I will watch for a close above 204.50 and go for 300 pips plus interest to the top side.

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