Tuesday, July 17, 2007

GBP/NZD still a good short?

I had an email questioning whether someone in GBP/NZD trade short could hang on to the trade. It is easier for me to show my point using my blog with some images so here we are.

First, it depends on where you got into the trade. If you went short and sold near resistance (at 2.6100) you are still very profitable, if you got in the trade lower and losing money you are probably struggling right now and looking to get out.

Second, it doesn't matter where you got into the trade, either it is a good trade now or it isn't. If you are in the trade now where do you see resistance. Money gained or lost in the trade at this point has nothing to do with the current set up.

I see the resistances at 2.6100, 2.5870 and 2.5880. Any of these points could be considered for shorting opportunities. You may note that we are at or near the lowest resistance level listed which correlates to the consolidation and resistance level 4-5 days ago and the support level tested on June 28th. I like this position from a risk stand point but I like this pair has a tendency to give large shadows and test your tolerance of larger stop losses. If you aren't short a position here with a 125 pip stop seems appropriate. If we close beyond the fib fan and the 2.5900, I would still be comfortable selling it near the 2.6100 again. Low risk--Great Potential.

This pair is great for practicing your long term trading strategies and getting better at understanding risk to reward ratios.

Good luck and Good Trading.

5 comments:

Margie said...

I entered on 15 July at 2.5864 with a stop at 2.6047 at a resistance line.

Blake Young said...

So the question for you is are you going to let your current profit loss affect your initial view of the trade? Where is the point you will take profits?

Margie said...

No I am not going to let my current loss affect my initial view of the trade (it is taking a lot of nail biting). The lower channel is about 2.55 so that would be the first exit. If it breaks through that it could go to 2.4875 There is long term support at 2.51

Bob_aka_Omar said...

I got in the trade with a 1.5 * ATR stop. At least it's moved enugh to cover the spread.

Blake Young said...

So I don't risk being called out on all talk and no action, I too entered the trade short at 2.5877. I have made up most of the spread and I am placing my initial stop at 2.6250. I will be adjusting this to the resistance levels mentioned after I see how tomorrow plays out.