Predictive power of forex options

The price has remained fairly stale in the past 18 hours. This doesn't mean there aren't some messages being put together in the mean time. First look at the changes in the price and where it to and returned to. What does that mean? The price has pushed beyond our short term fib fan line, a longer term fib fan puts resistance levels meeting fan lines near 1.01 and 1.02. Try it yourself and see if you get similar levels, I will post my long term fibs later.

If the bear flag confirms as indicated by the yellow line, 0.9750 is a fairly easy target that could play out in a matter of a couple of days. I have commented to those I work with a number of times that I think the Usd/Cad could trade in this range for most of the week or longer. So far so good. This leads me back to the idea of using an option trade. Before we get into the intricacy of option pricing, note that the at the money, and you can't get much more at the money than one one hundredth of a penny, is the same for both the November 100.50 call and put.

Call Bid Ask Put Bid Ask

CNJKA 1.35 1.50 CNJWA 1.35 1.50

So the 'at the money' costs the same. In theory the market has it priced equally the same risk wise. This is true but not not true. Looking a little deeper at the implied volatility shows nearly double the implied volatility on the puts than on the calls. This is not normal. The open interest is 8 times more on the call options too. How can implied volatility be higher and not price for the same options. I like the idea of selling a call or buying a put. What are your thoughts. Put them in the comments.