Thursday, October 25, 2007

When is the end of this scalp trade?

Watch for the down trend to end? Simple enough right? Wrong? Which down trend? The fib fan line? The longer term trend line? Here are the lines I am watching right now.

A continuation here is expected but a strong support lies at .9630. A sold resistance sits near .9700 and the longer term resistance stands at .9800. Keeping with the terminology here, put your trade to rest at support where it lies. Sit tight at the intermediate resistance and stand and run away if we break above the .9800 from along term point of view (or stand firm at .9800 for another selling opportunity, whatever you like best there).

This is a fun little exercise of analyzing a short term trade. The way I look at trading in general is this... it took me as much money in spread and even more time, focus and energy to trade this scalp as it did the trade I shorted at 1.0000 a few weeks ago. So for my time, focus and energy, and really for my money, I'll go with the long term trade. Some of these will line up in the future as this has but I won't be discussing them nearly as much.

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