Non Farm Payroll

The ECB did what as anticipated and caused very little fluctuations. I am still expecting a big move this week, so let's see what the non farm payrolls will do. There could be a lot of volatility in the announcement. As I said in the previous blog, I will probably tighten stops right before the announcement and then trade the announcement. This means I will either be stopped out and flip trades or add to the positions as it runs after the announcement.

I was stopped out of the Usd/Cad due to volatility. I have an entry order at 1.1017, allowing a break below the lows.

I am looking at placing an entry order on gold and silver, both long of course. I haven't decided at what level to place it yet. We will see.

We haven't recovered all the uncaptured gains yet but we are still doing well and on track,and uncaptured doesn't count until you close it out.

Below are the current positions and current stop losses.

Have fun with the announcement. It could define the dollar.

Eur/Usd Long Trade

The Eur/Usd long entry position I placed yesterday was triggered and the Gbp/Usd is on a run.  I am buying into the Gbp as well, as of late the Gbp has shown more strength than the Euro so I like that trade better.  Danger being, non farm payroll in the morning.  I will probably tighten my stops up and trade the announcement tomorrow morning at 8:30 est.

 

 

Splitting the Euro

Tightened stops again, as we can see there was a pull back and silver slammed down and took us out of the trade.

Enough of the past, let's talk tonight. Any surprises from the ECB either in rate or in guidance will push the dollar one way or another. My best guess, if they change their guidance or alter the expected rate hike at all, the Eur/Usd will move 100 pips in the middle of the night, followed by another day or two of continued movement. I have place entry orders to add to my position if the Eur/Usd climbs by more than about 60 pips and I have my stop placed to stop me on a drop of about 40 pips and a short sell down about 60 pips again. So I don't care which way it goes, I plan on making money either way. This could be another pivotal day for the dollar and define a pull back closer to 1.20 in the next month or a push to nearly 1.30.

Good luck and happy trading.

Blake Young
Random Acts of Forex

I'm tired

Call it fatigue or call it intuition. I am tightening all of my stops a little tighter than usual. Note the stops in some cases are within the range of the day instead of below the lows of the day. They are not too tight because I wouldn't want to get stopped out when these could continue to run. You will note that as of today our equity position is now up over 200% since March 23rd. I know this is very aggressive to state but I would like to see us reach 100% by May 23rd which would put us at 300% ytd/2 months. Here's hopeful thinking. The reality is I am on a hot run and enjoying every minute of it. We will see how long this lasts.

Happy Trading
Blake Young
Random Acts of Forex

Mid day update, stopped out on the Usd/Jpy

I didn't get a chance to post an update yesterday, but I did adjust my stops and got stopped out of the Usd/Jpy, which then continued its run. Here are the current positions as of about 12:15 est.

Someone asked him how I exit my trades, most of the trades I exit on the stop losses you see in the current positions graphic. If you want to see where I get stopped out, double click the image below and see where my stops are positioned. Every day I tighten these based on my assessment of the current situation, allowing my profits to run.

I will get another posting up in about 4-5 hours.

Running behind

Will be posting an update later tonight.  Sorry for the inconvenience.

Now Let's Be Honest

OK, here is the question for the day. How many of you, honestly, thought to yourselves, "oh I guess, Blake blew it." or "the streak is over" or "He is insane" when you saw the 8% drawdown in one day? (actually dipped to about 12% during the night). Well I will have you know I was never nervous about all of those positions open at once. I just happened to stay up into the night and just got 4 hours of sleep, purely a coincidence, had nothing to do with my emotional state from trading... never doubted... never... Ok if you believe that send me $19.95 in a self addressed envelope and I will send you a deed to some beach front property in Arizona.

I don't like being in that many positions all at once. It makes me jittery. Thank goodness, once again, that I tend to follow rules. We did get a buy signal on the Gbp/Jpy which goes against the short Usd/Jpy signal. Probably just an indication of a very strong Gbp and a weak Usd, not necessarily a reflection on the Jpy. If you note the other quick postings you will see the other new trades.

I am tightening my stops a little more than I customarily do, primarily because I am tired and we are going into the weekend. I think all of these could still run after a breather but I need a breather too, not just because of trading but life in general.

So here it is, current standings, still soaring. Have a fantastic weekend.

Blake Young
Random Acts of Forex

Adding to the Eur/Usd and taking part of the silver positions off of the table

I am adding half of a normal position for myself on the Eur/Usd.  It is still running.  I have taken part of the silver position out (about 25% of the position) and part of the gold(33% of the position removed).  I felt over leveraged and didn't like the effect on my account nor my sleep patterns.  Over all we have already recovered from a peak of down $100 to up over $200.

 

Happy Trading

Blake Young

Random Acts of Forex

Selling the Usd/Zar

I have been watching the Usd/Zar, the interest payment is great in a sell postion and I believe it has found resitance.  Confirmation of price drop below yesterday's low.  Selling at 6.1226

 

Ups, downs and sideways

Busy day today but I think I am almost caught up. It was a very wild ride especially on the metals. Both gold and silver made good moves but reversed and then came back to center. I am OK with this initial pull back as I feel fairly confident in the metals for a long play (once again including the Aud and commodity related pairs).

The Usd/Cad and the Eur/Usd trades are still running well. I would not be surprised if this new Gbp/Usd trade were to pull back a little but then run up to 1.8220 if not 1.8420 *see chart*

















Current positions are listed below.

Buying with both hands

Barclays has announced that the SEC has approved the sale of the Silver ETF.  What does this mean?  It means every group that tracks it and every purchase of the ETF will require holdings in Silver ~ equals higher demand ~ equals higher price.  I have bought into the silver again sold an additional position on the USD/CAD.  This may take a couple of days to play out on the precious metals so we will keep a loose stop and hold onto this for the next few days and more likely then not through the weekend.

 

Everything is moving, look for price pattern breaks and 2 and 3 year high and low breakouts.

 

Blake Young

Random Acts of Forex

Buying gold, usd/jpy

Big anti dollar break

Going in short the Usd/Jpy and long gold

Short the Eur/Aud

I am going short the Eur/Aud today. Gold is breaking out as I typed this and I think I am going to take a small position long. I want to look at it a little further. If gold stays above $640 I will get in to the trade tonight, or maybe long the Aud/Usd.

Tonight could be a big move for the JPY I am thinking of placing an entry order sell 30 pips below current price on the Usd/Jpy to see if we can get into the trade and ride the strength of the Jpy.

Current positions are listed below. If I get into any of the other trades I will post an update.

Happy Trading.

Cad holding support

The Usd/Cad has not broke the lows yet but I am still short the Usd/Cad expecting a break below. I commented that I shouldn't enter that Usd/Zar trade as it was too closely related to gold and sure enough I was right. I should listen to me instead of make poor trades. Over all we didn't move much today about 1/10th of 1% down for the day with tightened stop losses.

I have been waiting for a reason to get back into the Eur/Usd long, the break above highs for the past 7 months was a good enough reason but I entered in the trade long.

I believe gold and silver are finally shaking off the volatility and are poised for a move. I will be willing to take trades on gold and silver again tomorrow. Expectations of gold moving about $640 for a buy are in my sites.

Usd/Cad below 1.13

If the Usd/Cad can sustain a push below the 1.13 range, maybe 15 -25 pips, I will look to adding to the short position.  Keep your eye on this one.  Watching for a reason to add to the Eur/Usd and still not taking any gold or silver trades for another day or two.

 

Blake Young

Random Acts of Forex

Error in Html

I am not very good at html yet and so when I edited the site, I messed up and it was not updating posts. Luckily not much has happened in the past couple of days. All posts are now shown and the updates and current status are here. Sorry for any inconvenience.

Blake

New position ahead of Euro and Cad announcements

New month, new trades and announcements

My entry order triggered on the Usd/Zar, which as I said when I set the trade that I expected that it could be a troublemsome trade due to the fact the Zar is gold focus and all gold and silver trades are worthless until Wednesday or Thursday. The Usd/Chf gave a signal and seems to be trying to push down through support at about 1.2700. Now because of my delay in getting the blog set up and the numbers run, I got a better price than if I would have entered the trade right at close. If support can be breached here, the next level is down about 250 pips followed by another support about every 200-250 pips. This is a little aggressive as it comes to Fibonacci numbers but as a trending indicator and breaking below a support level, it works. Each Fibonacci breached can be an added entry point or an exit for profit taking.

The European union is announcing current account and trade balance, both expected to be good which should only encourage the chf to continue down. Canada is announcing interest rates which is also expected to move the Usd/Cad down further.













Current positions are listed below. This is the beginning of a new fiscal month So I will count month to date and since 3/22/06 starting tomorrow. Counting through today we are up 121% in 31 days.

Current positions, 3 new potential trades

We were taken out of all but two trades but still doing well and locking in more profits. The new trades are interesting. We were in the Gbp/Jpy until stopped out yesterday, the pullback became a retracement and gave a short signal today. This is surprising as oil broke through $75 for the first time in history. This tells me that we definitely have strength in the yen and the Usd/Jpy trade should continue to run. The dollar looks to continue weakening, the Swedish National Bank dropped the USD holdings nearly in half. I am expecting a continue run on the Usd/Cad as well.

Gold pushed back to near the close two days ago, making up the majority of losses from yesterday. Surprisingly, my system is giving a buy signal but I am still not comfortable with this kind of a move. I want to see another day or two before buying gold or silver. The Usd/Zar gave a short signal, the rand is highly correlated to gold as well. I have placed an entry order at 6.0019 to try to get a better price or miss the trade entirely, just because this gold volatility is making my indicator act unusual.

Time will tell but things are still going well.

Happy Weekend.
Blake Young
Random Acts of Forex

Base 10/unit based trading and streaming quotes

GFT has lowered their initial deposit requirements. If you are interested in the functionality of GFT you can set up a demo by clicking on the link to the right or even set up an account with them. The followers of this blog know I am a huge proponent of base 10 and unit based trading for the money management aspect.

I have also added streaming quotes, courtesy of GFT Forex as well.

HUGE PULL BACK!

This is the biggest pull back I have seen in Silver and Gold. Silver pulled back nearly 6 times the average daily range. The market commodity market was shaken unbelievably. It is my opinion that the gold and silver market will not give clear signals for the next 3-10 days as traders try to figure out what happened and while large hedge funds and institutions apply salve to their wounds. Luckily I tightened my stops and was not hammered nearly as much as some friends nor as much as the institutions and funds did today. Anyone holding silver futures today would have lost as much as $14,000 per full contract held today if they did not have tight stops in play. Only two of our positions got stopped out otherwise. One of those stopped out was the Usd/Zar which is heavily correlated to gold. We received a buy signal on Eur/Aud. I am very concerned about this trade due to the AUD and Gold correlation with the big gold retrace. I am not planning on taking any metal signals for the next few days. Even still, to trade my system I am taking a 1% trade long on the Eur/Aud.
I feel like most of my signals related to metals at all are going to be sketchy for the next few days. Here is a chart of my system I have been trading and developing. As you can see prior to today the signals are not quick or dramatic. This is will through the chart I have been using off by at least 4 days. It was an insane move.













Below are the current positions. I gave up a lot of equity but that money was not mine until I closed the trades. Still holding over 100% return in under a month.












Blake Young
Random Acts of Forex