Another great site and a great book

WWW.PROFITINGWITHFOREX.COM

Profiting with Forex introduces you to all the advantages of the global foreign exchange market and shows you how to capitalize on it. You will learn why the Forex is the perfect supplement to stock and bond investing; why it is unrivaled in terms of protection, profit potential, and ease of use; and how it can generate profits, whether the other markets are up of down.


You can get there by clicking above or the link to the right.

In case you haven't gone their yet.

I have been posting to the INVESTOOLSCT.BLOGSPOT.COM site. This allows for you to see my postings as well as some other great traders. I will still occasionally post to this site but you should definitely visit the other too.

Boom Baby!!! GBP/JPY Bounce confirmed

We always tell people, don't try to pick the top and bottom. Play the middle. Rules were meant to be broken. I have been fortunate enough to pick near the top (click here for the top) and bottom of the recent moves on the GBP/JPY. If you would have followed my trade yesterday. (click here to see yesterdays blog) and not been "faint of heart" you would be up 150 pips and climbing. Watch for the pull backs, understand your risk and then get rid of the emotion.

Gbp/Jpy going higher?

The Gbp/Jpy is climbing apparently in an unstable undiminished run. Analyzing the pair a little closer, there have been and will continue to be plenty of signals of reentry/position adding as the pair rockets up. Many traders are sitting on the sidelines ahead of the non farm payrolls, there is no reason to avoid trading the crosses.

From a fundamental view, is there any reason this pair will stop running in the short term. Answer: NO. Many have said the pair is too high. Let's look at the components. Is the Bank of England OK with continued strengthening of the Cable? Of course, strong currency is a good thing for the Brits. Is the Bank of Japan OK with continued weakness in the Yen? They couldn't be happier, weak currency means strong exports and strong economy for Japan. Neither of the involved reserve banks have the intention of reversing this trend. If the non farm payrolls come out tomorrow negatively or low for the US showing continued slowing in the economy, what will happen to the pair? The Gbp will strengthen a lot as it is a strong currency right now. The Yen has been weak against the USD, a weakening currency matched with a weakening currency will not cause much change and what change occurs will be outweighed by the difference between the Gbp and Usd. No worries for the announcement or current fundamentals then.

Technically, we agree with the fundamentals (see graph). We have had a consistent bouncing at the Fibonacci levels throughout this climb. It would not be surprising to see a pull back tomorrow or Monday of upwards of 250-300 pips, giving an awesome entry position before running up to the -61.8% level or to the -100% level as market on the graph. If by chance we blast through the -38.2% Fib (223.85) in the next 2 days, I would not expect the pull back until the 226 level. If the pair was aggressive enough to reach the 226 level without a pull back, I would expect the next pull back to be more dramatic, possibly to the 222 or even the 221 level from the 226 ceiling. If we get a pull back now, the odds of another aggressive 600 pip climb is greatly improved.

Gold at a cross road

When looking at gold, I see it standing at a cross road. One direction promises a brilliant bright shiny metal future, the other direction, dimming oxidation and a lack luster existence. As gold tests the bottom of this trending support, we see a divergence has formed on the 14.3.3 stochastics and has also moved to just barely out of the upper reversal zone (78%ile at close). If Gold continues down tomorrow, I will expect drop to $600, matching the width of the channel, the gap from 2 weeks ago and the consolidation in April. A further move could push Gold lower to $550, 2 channel widths and the prevailing support level from January through March.
A bounce off of the current channel or the 38% Fibonacci line at about $620 could be the confirmation to see Gold continue the bullish run back to the top of the channel near $680 if not the highs hit in May at $740. I would be willing to accept either direction with some confirmation. Tomorrow very likely will offer the clarity needed for a big move and sizable profitability.
My personal bias is to see Gold follow the divergence and stochastics losing ground and pushing to the bottom side. If you don’t have a futures account or account to trade spot gold, look at the AUD which is back in line with gold pricing after fighting the bullish move in gold previously in the year, the AUD seems to be correlated again. If you are looking to play gold weakness with the AUD but aren’t convinved that the USD can continue, look at the set ups with the AUD/JPY and the EUR/AUD, both are also at key levels of support/resistance.

USD/JPY

Entry order expecting a break above highs over the 116.60 market with a target 118.30.  This plays into major resistance and fibonnaci retracement levels.  Stop near 115.50

 

The Eur/Usd is trying to tempt me to trade this long yet I am not really comfortable with the FOMC meeting on Friday.  I am thinking of putting 100 pip entry orders both directions on the pair.  Expecting a significant move back to the top of the channel or a breakout.  It may remain flat all the way through Thursday.
 

Gold is relatively flat.  Watch for a break above 602 and then a move to 610.  A break above 612 watch for a move all the way to 635. The Aud/Usd is right near the 61% fib.  If this bounces and gold breaks it could be a major reversal all the way back up to .7600 or higher over the next month or two.  A break below could drop us to .7000. Short at .7250 with a stop .7380.  If it breaks up with gold through .7430, I will be more aggressive and get in long.

 

Watch the Usd/Cad.  Appears to be setting up for a bounce down.  Pivotal point.

Blake Young

Random Acts of Forex

 

Eur/Usd

Still waiting for a break/close below the 1.2550 level on the Eur/Usd.  Same level mentioned earlier.  Maybe an entry today, we are only 17 pips away right now.  I am also looking at the Usd/Cad for a short position.  This pull back could give a good entry price.  Let's see what happens in the next 5 hours.

 

Blake Young

Random Acts of Forex.

He's ALIVE!!!

Surprisingly, I am back. After finding good homes for my dogs, selling my house, moving to another house and launching trading rooms and the new OEC, I have carved out time for a posting. I felt this was very important to do as the ECB rate decision is due out in the morning. This decision comes at a very critical time. We had nearly a 750 pip run on the dollar but sentiment is uncertain. Many traders are still very bearish but I wonder if that is nearing an end. If the ECB raises rates higher than the expected, this could lead to a possible dollar catastrophe/panic. If the announcement is disappointing, it could be the catalyst to reverse the run. Taking a more conservative approach to the trade and waiting for a clear break out of the bull flag I see an entry at 1.30 with a target of 1.36 over the next 2 months, the reverse would be a close below 1.2550 and a target of 1.1950. See chart









6/8/2006
7:45 est
EU
ECB Announces Interest Rates
2.75% expected
2.50% previous


The other big trade I am watching is the Chf/Jpy. The pair has broke out of the ascending triangle and appears to be going for a small retest. A sudden move up could be justification for a long position and 250-350 pip target. See chart














I hope all is well, wish you the best of success and hope you are able to "print" some money on tomorrow's announcement.

Blake Young
Random Acts of Forex
actsofforex@gmail.com

Bad time for an update

I know this is not the most opportune time for an update but I haven't had much time the past 2 days.  I was stopped out of all my trades over the weekend and on Monday.  I am getting back into gold.  Looking for an entry on silver near 13.90 and then again at 14.05.  Looking for a short position on the Cad/Jpy at 98.22.  I am looking for a long position on the Eur/Usd at 1.2881.  Looking for a short position on the Usd/Jpy 109.20.  Straddling the Eur/Aud-- Long if it goes over 1.6860 and short if it goes below 1.6650. 

 

I am really deliberating on a short position on the Eur/Chf. Gut feeling says it is a short position right now. 

Instead I think I may just short the Usd/Chf.  Can decide yet on this one.  This would be a short 40 pip grab.  If I wait and see the Eur/Chf go below 1.5450, this would be more sizable and maybe take us down to 1.5260 .

 

While typing this, my gold position has moved positive making up a large night time spread and is up $30 from yesterday's lows.  Could be big day for the Aud/Usd.  A push above 0.7740 will place me in a long trade anticipating a move higher to 0.8150 over the next 2 weeks.

 

Best of success

Blake Young

Random Acts of Forex

Updated Positions

Got stopped out of most of the trades during the night. Re entered Silver and the Eur/Usd both long. See positions. I will try to write some comments on the week to come tomorrow. Remember trade balance is due out tomorrow. I may scalp a little in the morning if we get a strong movement.

Wild ride from the FOMC

Up and down up and down,... up??? The news appeared to have a net zero effect on the market. Lots of whip saw on the event. I was stopped out of the Eur/Usd again and then got back in. So I grabbed a couple of dollars and re-entered the trade. Also added to the Gold and back in on Silver. Remember you can trade IAU and SLV if you would like to trade the ETFs/iShares for gold and silver.

We are back over 200% again and still have 2 weeks to go for the end of month two. With gold and silver breaking out, I think we have a good chance.

Good luck in your trading.

Blake Young
Random Acts of Forex

Testing Barriers and stop losses

This morning there has been a bit of volatility as many currency pairs have pushed to the years or multiple year extremes. These attempts have included a bit of volatility and I have been stopped out of a number of trades and still have signals to get back in to the trades. This can be aggravating to be stopped out and have the trend continue, but it is better than taking to much risk. So, even though I was stopped out of the Eur and the Cad, I am back in those trades.

I have added to my gold position as gold makes an attempt at $700. This could be big. About 6 months ago I commented to a number of trader friends that I wouldn't be surprised if gold broke $1000 within 2 years. It certainly appears to be headed that direction.

Now pay attention here. FOMC Interest rate announcement. What is it going to be? Even though Bernanke said he may be done raising rates, analysts are expecting we are going to get another rate hike to put the discount rate to 5%. If the analysts are right and the market is expecting this, imagine the implication if there is a no rate hike. If the market has priced in the hike and their is no hike, we could see 150-200 pip move after the announcement. The question is, is the Eur/Usd reflecting expectations of a hike, no hike as Bernanke hinted at, or something in between. No matter what happens, I expect a lot of action tomorrow. Maybe a good scalping time. This could be another reason to play gold, due to uncertainty.

Below are the current positions. Note the entry price has changed due to new positions or adding to previous positions.

At a live event.

Do to presenting and the time required involved in the class, I am going to do my best to update this but updates may be late or missing while here.  I will send an email for every update between now and Friday if you are on the email list.

 

Thanks for your understanding

 

Blake Young

Random Acts of Forex

Non Farm Payroll

The ECB did what as anticipated and caused very little fluctuations. I am still expecting a big move this week, so let's see what the non farm payrolls will do. There could be a lot of volatility in the announcement. As I said in the previous blog, I will probably tighten stops right before the announcement and then trade the announcement. This means I will either be stopped out and flip trades or add to the positions as it runs after the announcement.

I was stopped out of the Usd/Cad due to volatility. I have an entry order at 1.1017, allowing a break below the lows.

I am looking at placing an entry order on gold and silver, both long of course. I haven't decided at what level to place it yet. We will see.

We haven't recovered all the uncaptured gains yet but we are still doing well and on track,and uncaptured doesn't count until you close it out.

Below are the current positions and current stop losses.

Have fun with the announcement. It could define the dollar.

Eur/Usd Long Trade

The Eur/Usd long entry position I placed yesterday was triggered and the Gbp/Usd is on a run.  I am buying into the Gbp as well, as of late the Gbp has shown more strength than the Euro so I like that trade better.  Danger being, non farm payroll in the morning.  I will probably tighten my stops up and trade the announcement tomorrow morning at 8:30 est.

 

 

Splitting the Euro

Tightened stops again, as we can see there was a pull back and silver slammed down and took us out of the trade.

Enough of the past, let's talk tonight. Any surprises from the ECB either in rate or in guidance will push the dollar one way or another. My best guess, if they change their guidance or alter the expected rate hike at all, the Eur/Usd will move 100 pips in the middle of the night, followed by another day or two of continued movement. I have place entry orders to add to my position if the Eur/Usd climbs by more than about 60 pips and I have my stop placed to stop me on a drop of about 40 pips and a short sell down about 60 pips again. So I don't care which way it goes, I plan on making money either way. This could be another pivotal day for the dollar and define a pull back closer to 1.20 in the next month or a push to nearly 1.30.

Good luck and happy trading.

Blake Young
Random Acts of Forex

I'm tired

Call it fatigue or call it intuition. I am tightening all of my stops a little tighter than usual. Note the stops in some cases are within the range of the day instead of below the lows of the day. They are not too tight because I wouldn't want to get stopped out when these could continue to run. You will note that as of today our equity position is now up over 200% since March 23rd. I know this is very aggressive to state but I would like to see us reach 100% by May 23rd which would put us at 300% ytd/2 months. Here's hopeful thinking. The reality is I am on a hot run and enjoying every minute of it. We will see how long this lasts.

Happy Trading
Blake Young
Random Acts of Forex

Mid day update, stopped out on the Usd/Jpy

I didn't get a chance to post an update yesterday, but I did adjust my stops and got stopped out of the Usd/Jpy, which then continued its run. Here are the current positions as of about 12:15 est.

Someone asked him how I exit my trades, most of the trades I exit on the stop losses you see in the current positions graphic. If you want to see where I get stopped out, double click the image below and see where my stops are positioned. Every day I tighten these based on my assessment of the current situation, allowing my profits to run.

I will get another posting up in about 4-5 hours.

Running behind

Will be posting an update later tonight.  Sorry for the inconvenience.

Now Let's Be Honest

OK, here is the question for the day. How many of you, honestly, thought to yourselves, "oh I guess, Blake blew it." or "the streak is over" or "He is insane" when you saw the 8% drawdown in one day? (actually dipped to about 12% during the night). Well I will have you know I was never nervous about all of those positions open at once. I just happened to stay up into the night and just got 4 hours of sleep, purely a coincidence, had nothing to do with my emotional state from trading... never doubted... never... Ok if you believe that send me $19.95 in a self addressed envelope and I will send you a deed to some beach front property in Arizona.

I don't like being in that many positions all at once. It makes me jittery. Thank goodness, once again, that I tend to follow rules. We did get a buy signal on the Gbp/Jpy which goes against the short Usd/Jpy signal. Probably just an indication of a very strong Gbp and a weak Usd, not necessarily a reflection on the Jpy. If you note the other quick postings you will see the other new trades.

I am tightening my stops a little more than I customarily do, primarily because I am tired and we are going into the weekend. I think all of these could still run after a breather but I need a breather too, not just because of trading but life in general.

So here it is, current standings, still soaring. Have a fantastic weekend.

Blake Young
Random Acts of Forex

Adding to the Eur/Usd and taking part of the silver positions off of the table

I am adding half of a normal position for myself on the Eur/Usd.  It is still running.  I have taken part of the silver position out (about 25% of the position) and part of the gold(33% of the position removed).  I felt over leveraged and didn't like the effect on my account nor my sleep patterns.  Over all we have already recovered from a peak of down $100 to up over $200.

 

Happy Trading

Blake Young

Random Acts of Forex

Selling the Usd/Zar

I have been watching the Usd/Zar, the interest payment is great in a sell postion and I believe it has found resitance.  Confirmation of price drop below yesterday's low.  Selling at 6.1226

 

Ups, downs and sideways

Busy day today but I think I am almost caught up. It was a very wild ride especially on the metals. Both gold and silver made good moves but reversed and then came back to center. I am OK with this initial pull back as I feel fairly confident in the metals for a long play (once again including the Aud and commodity related pairs).

The Usd/Cad and the Eur/Usd trades are still running well. I would not be surprised if this new Gbp/Usd trade were to pull back a little but then run up to 1.8220 if not 1.8420 *see chart*

















Current positions are listed below.

Buying with both hands

Barclays has announced that the SEC has approved the sale of the Silver ETF.  What does this mean?  It means every group that tracks it and every purchase of the ETF will require holdings in Silver ~ equals higher demand ~ equals higher price.  I have bought into the silver again sold an additional position on the USD/CAD.  This may take a couple of days to play out on the precious metals so we will keep a loose stop and hold onto this for the next few days and more likely then not through the weekend.

 

Everything is moving, look for price pattern breaks and 2 and 3 year high and low breakouts.

 

Blake Young

Random Acts of Forex

Buying gold, usd/jpy

Big anti dollar break

Going in short the Usd/Jpy and long gold

Short the Eur/Aud

I am going short the Eur/Aud today. Gold is breaking out as I typed this and I think I am going to take a small position long. I want to look at it a little further. If gold stays above $640 I will get in to the trade tonight, or maybe long the Aud/Usd.

Tonight could be a big move for the JPY I am thinking of placing an entry order sell 30 pips below current price on the Usd/Jpy to see if we can get into the trade and ride the strength of the Jpy.

Current positions are listed below. If I get into any of the other trades I will post an update.

Happy Trading.

Cad holding support

The Usd/Cad has not broke the lows yet but I am still short the Usd/Cad expecting a break below. I commented that I shouldn't enter that Usd/Zar trade as it was too closely related to gold and sure enough I was right. I should listen to me instead of make poor trades. Over all we didn't move much today about 1/10th of 1% down for the day with tightened stop losses.

I have been waiting for a reason to get back into the Eur/Usd long, the break above highs for the past 7 months was a good enough reason but I entered in the trade long.

I believe gold and silver are finally shaking off the volatility and are poised for a move. I will be willing to take trades on gold and silver again tomorrow. Expectations of gold moving about $640 for a buy are in my sites.

Usd/Cad below 1.13

If the Usd/Cad can sustain a push below the 1.13 range, maybe 15 -25 pips, I will look to adding to the short position.  Keep your eye on this one.  Watching for a reason to add to the Eur/Usd and still not taking any gold or silver trades for another day or two.

 

Blake Young

Random Acts of Forex

Error in Html

I am not very good at html yet and so when I edited the site, I messed up and it was not updating posts. Luckily not much has happened in the past couple of days. All posts are now shown and the updates and current status are here. Sorry for any inconvenience.

Blake

New position ahead of Euro and Cad announcements

New month, new trades and announcements

My entry order triggered on the Usd/Zar, which as I said when I set the trade that I expected that it could be a troublemsome trade due to the fact the Zar is gold focus and all gold and silver trades are worthless until Wednesday or Thursday. The Usd/Chf gave a signal and seems to be trying to push down through support at about 1.2700. Now because of my delay in getting the blog set up and the numbers run, I got a better price than if I would have entered the trade right at close. If support can be breached here, the next level is down about 250 pips followed by another support about every 200-250 pips. This is a little aggressive as it comes to Fibonacci numbers but as a trending indicator and breaking below a support level, it works. Each Fibonacci breached can be an added entry point or an exit for profit taking.

The European union is announcing current account and trade balance, both expected to be good which should only encourage the chf to continue down. Canada is announcing interest rates which is also expected to move the Usd/Cad down further.













Current positions are listed below. This is the beginning of a new fiscal month So I will count month to date and since 3/22/06 starting tomorrow. Counting through today we are up 121% in 31 days.

Current positions, 3 new potential trades

We were taken out of all but two trades but still doing well and locking in more profits. The new trades are interesting. We were in the Gbp/Jpy until stopped out yesterday, the pullback became a retracement and gave a short signal today. This is surprising as oil broke through $75 for the first time in history. This tells me that we definitely have strength in the yen and the Usd/Jpy trade should continue to run. The dollar looks to continue weakening, the Swedish National Bank dropped the USD holdings nearly in half. I am expecting a continue run on the Usd/Cad as well.

Gold pushed back to near the close two days ago, making up the majority of losses from yesterday. Surprisingly, my system is giving a buy signal but I am still not comfortable with this kind of a move. I want to see another day or two before buying gold or silver. The Usd/Zar gave a short signal, the rand is highly correlated to gold as well. I have placed an entry order at 6.0019 to try to get a better price or miss the trade entirely, just because this gold volatility is making my indicator act unusual.

Time will tell but things are still going well.

Happy Weekend.
Blake Young
Random Acts of Forex

Base 10/unit based trading and streaming quotes

GFT has lowered their initial deposit requirements. If you are interested in the functionality of GFT you can set up a demo by clicking on the link to the right or even set up an account with them. The followers of this blog know I am a huge proponent of base 10 and unit based trading for the money management aspect.

I have also added streaming quotes, courtesy of GFT Forex as well.

HUGE PULL BACK!

This is the biggest pull back I have seen in Silver and Gold. Silver pulled back nearly 6 times the average daily range. The market commodity market was shaken unbelievably. It is my opinion that the gold and silver market will not give clear signals for the next 3-10 days as traders try to figure out what happened and while large hedge funds and institutions apply salve to their wounds. Luckily I tightened my stops and was not hammered nearly as much as some friends nor as much as the institutions and funds did today. Anyone holding silver futures today would have lost as much as $14,000 per full contract held today if they did not have tight stops in play. Only two of our positions got stopped out otherwise. One of those stopped out was the Usd/Zar which is heavily correlated to gold. We received a buy signal on Eur/Aud. I am very concerned about this trade due to the AUD and Gold correlation with the big gold retrace. I am not planning on taking any metal signals for the next few days. Even still, to trade my system I am taking a 1% trade long on the Eur/Aud.
I feel like most of my signals related to metals at all are going to be sketchy for the next few days. Here is a chart of my system I have been trading and developing. As you can see prior to today the signals are not quick or dramatic. This is will through the chart I have been using off by at least 4 days. It was an insane move.













Below are the current positions. I gave up a lot of equity but that money was not mine until I closed the trades. Still holding over 100% return in under a month.












Blake Young
Random Acts of Forex

Another great day ahead of major announcements.

Today was yet again a phenominal day. All positions are positive and running.

Tonight and tomorrow we have trade balance, cpi, initial jobless claims, and retail sales coming out of Japan, the Euro-zone, Canada and the US. Because of all of this volatility, I am actually tightening the stops a smidge more than I usually do. Not by much, just putting it closer to the lows for the day instead of 10 pips or more below the mark.

No new trades. Tomorrow will either solidify trades or break us out to new levels.

Below are the current positions and stop losses. I did catch another entry on gold and took a half positions but got in near $635 instead of the $633 I was eyeing. Silver has been so aggresive in its growth and did not retrace, so I am not comfortable with chasing it on another entry. I need it to breath out before or break the $15 mark before I get too anxious to put more into the trade.

Current equity shows 175%. But they are not closed out. If all of the closed out against us tomorrow, we should still be up about 145-155%.

Gold and Silver on a run

Gold and silver are taking off again.  If you don't have access to spot precious metals or futures, watch for a move in the Aussie, either paired with the Usd or the Jpy.

 

If gold breaks through 633 I will be watching for another entry position.  Silver has already broken through where I was hoping to add to my position, I will probably wait for a small pullback and try to add half of a position again.

 

There will be a scheduled outage on blogger.com today at about the time I run the update.  So please be aware that the update may be delayed a couple of hours.

 

Blake

http://randomactsofforex.blogspot.com

Silver trigger, Account holding well over 100%

The silver entry position posted earlier today was triggered, gold was very close. There are no new trades today, just tightening of stops, many into profitable or near profitable territory.

I sent out an email before stating that my goal was to surpass the 100% return in less than a month. Now, in 27 days, under 4 weeks of time the current equity is at over 117% return without risking more than about 3% in any one position. This was accomplished with slower moving trades off the daily charts, not scalping the 5 minute charts. On significant breakouts I added to positions such as on silver today. I manually trailed stops that allowed for shortened losses, but all in all this has been a conservative trading style.

I do not expect these kind of returns continuously. If I hit 50% for the year I would be out performing 95% of all funds out there. We have hit 117% in a short time frame.

To compare to Barklay's Top CTA funds, they on average are down nearly 1% for March and up 0.01% in April.

This index I am referring to can be found at http://www.barclaygrp.com/indices/btopfx/


Best of success.

Blake Young
Random Acts of Forex
http://randomactsofforex.blogspot.com

Placing additional entry orders on Gold and Silver

Gold and Silver are running higher and higher. I am placing an entry order for both, which will add to my positions if gold moves over $622.85, beyond todays R1 and well above the pivots. Silver entry order above $14 at $14.10 which is R2 and a nice round number which precious metals seem to enjoy breaking through. If you do not have spot market available for the precious metals and do have a stock account, these trades can be used frequently with gold and silver mining stocks or by trading some of the indexes or futures.

I have activated the http://www.weblogs.com/ update on this blog. This means if you set up an account with http://www.weblogs.com/ they will notify you everytime my blog (or other blogs you may be interested in tracking) is updated. I believe this is a free service.

Questions and Answers

I would like to get some more dialog going. If you have questions or comments email actsofforex@gmail.com and let me know if you would like your question answered on the blog rather than going through the comment area. If it is a private/personal question that you would like answered, please specify. Please be thoughtful in your questions and comments as this should be a learning forum.

I will leave this open until the # of questions or comments is too taxing to my time, otherwise it is open to questions immediately. Share the email, share the blog, let's learn together.

If you would like to be part of the email list and you are not currently, email actsofforex@gmail.com and I will include you on the list. Emails go out occasionally on non standard updates of the blog (meaning not in the afternoon) and if I want to add additional information not published on the blog. I may answer some of the questions through the email rather than the blog.

Blake Young
Random Acts of Forex

Anti dollar plays

There are a lot of new positions and break outs today. Because of the number of signals today, I am taking half sized positions on everything that is anti dollar. This is not because of my love for the dollar, rather because if the new 6 trades are all retracements that would be painful. Instead I am taking all 6 new signals entering half the size I normally would and adding to my Gbp/Jpy position.

See below for the current trades, new trades and current equity.

Happy Trading.

Blake Young
Random Acts of Forex

Euro Break out

This was the bounce and possible entry signal I was discussing. Great break, great run, lots of money to be had, Blake was moving from one house to another and didn't catch the trade.
Bummer.

Even though this trade was not entered into the other active trades are doing really well and I added to the silver position. I am expecting a number of signals at close today.

Current Positions

For you night owns, the Bank of Japan minutes are tonight at 1am est. It could be very interesting and volatile time.

Possible break outs

No , I didn't forget about you. There were no real signals yesterday and today we can see the markets are fairly quiet. I am feeling a push against the dollar and expecting the Eur and Gbp to possibly make the move first. The weakening dollar which I believe is impending, could also break gold out above 600. I am going to tighten my gold stops and the reset an entry near $604. If we can't break that level gold will probably putter around in the 590s.

The Gbp/Usd is close to moving beyond a level of resistance. The price movement today has arguably passed above resistance. I want to see a close past 1.7535 at which point I will go long the pair. Climbing oil prices will only add to the move.
















Looking at the Eur, this could be testing old resistance on a large wedge ready to move us to the 1.2500 level or higher.





















Blake Young
Random Acts of Forex

Usd/Jpy Whipsaw and an Entry on the Gbp/Jpy

The Usd/Jpy trade went positive nearly 50 pips before retracing into negative territory today. Initially the indecision by the Bank of Japan caused weakness in the Yen but speculation of an interest rate change in July or August pulled it right back in down. Surprisingly I have a buy signal on the Gbp/Jpy, posible a reason to consider going long the Gbp/Usd instead. But as I said before I am a rule follower when it comes to my trading.

That being said I broke a rule and chased gold, jumping the gun instead of waiting. I could have got a rate $4 better at the target I suggested yesterday rather than getting in at 597.88 (could have been in at 593.50 if I just waited for the day to end). As much as I would like to get in even now at 595 this would be over leaveraging a single trade which would be an even rule to break.

As a side note. When I post my current postions, it shows average price. If I bought in twice it will only show one position with the average of the two values.

Tomorrow should have an active morning. Lets see if we can't break 100% total account increase and double the account before the one month mark.

You can double click the current standing to see the image more clearly.

Chasing the glitter again

Gold is showing the pull back as anticipated. Key support appears to be a little higher than I had anticipated, closer to 597, which also matches the S1 for you pivot followers. For those who do not trade gold, the Aud/Usd appears to be mimicking the gold move today with a pull back to recent resistance acting as a new support. A buy at 0.7320 would be a decent entry point targeting a potential move to 0.7400 over the next day or two.

While I am typing this I am seeing gold push back up. I think I will get in near $597.50. If gold can break $603 as mentioned yesterday, I will expect a push towards $611 as the next point to watch.

All positions are still in the black and running well this morning.

Blake Young
Random Acts of Forex

Adjusted stops and long the Usd/Jpy

I am still watching for an re-entry for gold. Either a break higher or a pull back as a good entry. The Usd/Jpy gave a long signal with a somewhat tight stop loss. See the current positions. This past 3 weeks is near my record run, similar to a time when I did over 250% in 3 months. This is not common with conservative money management. Gold and silver have helped a lot. Silver is still running and gold is going for another break of the $600 level. Keep an eye on these.

Blake Young
Random Acts of Forex

Limited out of gold, watching for entry position

Gold has treated me rather well. I limited out of my gold positions today at $599.10 and I am watching for a pull back or a break above the key $600 level to get back in. If gold pulls back at the end of the day I will expect another day of pull back and watch for an entry near $590-$594. If Gold breaks to the top side, I will wait until the break is about $602, allowing for a strong enough break as confirmation to the trade. Silver is still running well, as are all the other current positions. I will be moving most if not all stops losses into profitable territory this afternoon.

small account percentage as of this post from 3/23... up 65%

Blake Young
Random Acts of Forex

Thank Heaven for Rules!!!

Well, I took the trade on the Eur/Aud and the trade is 150 pips positive. Hurray for RULES!!!!. We are watching for unemployment #s (USA) to bring the Euro down further and rising gold to continue that run. With some luck we will be able to extend all the trades to new heights. Currently the success rate is in the high 70% and the account equity is up 46% on the smaller account and we have about covered the pull back on the larger account. I am at the live event through today and I will have to update trades when I get a moment later. Watch for an update. Those on the actsoffforex@gmail.com mail list I will try to send out positions and new trades on the email as well.

Blake Young
Random Acts of Forex

Short the Eur/Aud?

That question mark is not a typo. I have been trading a system using pivot points and moving averages. Today I received a short signal on the Eur/Aud. This intrigues me because the pair has traded very flat. The Eur/Aud is only down about 10 pips from the lowest close over the past 5 days but the consolidation has made my signal trigger. Very interesting. I am a rule follower for the most part so I did take the trade and put 3% into the trade. Keep your fingers crossed on this one.

The current equity in the smaller account is up over 35% as of today. Keep it comin'!

Run Run Run Just as Fast as You Can

I am still running behind. I am at a live training this week and will be setting up some further trades. Currently the small account is at 640, up over 30% in under 10 days. Hurray, go gold.

Running Behind

I am running behind and will need to post new trades and current standing later on today. Small account is up 12.5% currently.

Current Standings 03-28-06

Volatile Rough Ride

The Fed announced another rate hike and anticipated further rate hikes to come. This caused most of the trades to close out. You will notice the arbitrary 2 mini contracts with the larger account is suffering, this is due to both the non refined money management and the inability to trade gold and silver. We got placed in to long the gbp/jpy and the usd/jpy. I stated the other day that I was surprised I got a short position on the gbp/jpy. This trade is more in line to what I expected. I am very pleased with the fact the better money management, smaller account is still up over 10% in 5 days. Not a bad return.

Blake Young
Random Acts of Forex

Quick Grab

Played the announcement for a quick $5 grab on the Eur/Usd. Watching for the Eur/Usd to continue a move below 1.1985 on the down side or a retracement above 1.2115. Either brake should generate a move of 100 pips or more.

Also entered the Gbp/Jpy on a price pattern looking for nearly 200 pips with a 50 pip stop, 4 to 1 RR ratio. Gold has pulled back due to the interest rate change. Money moving from gold to a potential interest play with the dollar.

Blake Young
Random Acts of Forex

Current Positions 03/27/06 

Little Losses Big Wins

Excluding Gold, the losses (stopped out on 3 trades) were smaller than the gains. Including gold the returns are phenomenal. You will note that the smaller account that trades gold jumped to 13% over all return for less than a week, the larger account without gold is still doing great for a one week return.

I am a little surprised at the Gbp/Jpy trade coming up today, with the consolidation in this pair. This week I am expecting some tightening down due to consolidation ahead of the FOMC meeting.

Current Standings 3-24-06

Escaping from Dollars, Safety in Gold

New home starts came in lower than anticipated today, 1.08mm actual versus 1.20mm expected. This pull back in new home starts appears to be what moved the dollar today. My guess is that not only does it reflect a slow down in the real estate market in the US but it also confirms the lower PPI and CPI that the economy may be slowing which would encourage no rate hike.

Many investors have felt that more rate hikes were coming up. The numbers showing no justification to a rate hike would decrease the demand for the dollar and the increased demand in gold.

I flipped the gold trade as explained earlier. My anticipation is that the run for gold could last a week or more. The surprising thing is we were not taken out of any of the other trades. I tightened the stops on all the trades and we will see where this goes now.

The EUR/AUD bounced back up and looks like it set up for another run. Hopeful hundreds of pips run like last time.

Flipped gold position from short to long

Flipped the trade over. Gold is running up
I will post the trades and positions tonight.

Current Standing 3/23/06 at 5pm est

Beginning of a new day

The day rolls over at 5pm est and we are in one trade and waiting for another. Very bullish short term for the USD. I find it intriguing that gold is moving opposite of silver. Silver has been a rocket over the past 6 months.

You will notice the difference in the smaller account and the larger account. This is partially due to the slightly larger positions as a percentage in the larger. Don't let this sway you into playing bigger trades. Though this is great during a run, going larger on your account risk can destroy you in a drawdown period.

Current Standings

Down the Rabbit Hole

I feel a little bit like I am going down the rabbit hole with my new effort.

Effective 3-22-06, I will be posting all of my trades and running account values using some money management.

I have had people ask if it is possible to trade the forex with very little money. I am going to trade a $500 account with a dealer that allows base 10 or unit based trading.

What does unit based trading mean? This means that if I have $500 (493.60 after transfer fees) account and have a trade where I would normally place 2.5% at risk, I can actually invest $12.50 in the trade by investing 1,250 units or 12.5% of a mini contract. Unit trading allows exact money management.

For those that are using a dealer that trades based on mini and full size contract, I will be starting with $5385 and be buying 2 mini contracts for most trades.

I decided it is time to show that a conservative approach in the currency market can still generate good returns whether you are trading a small account or if you are trading a large account. As such I will not post my scalps or more other account, just the accounts as described above.

Because I am posting account results, I may miss a trade posting but all trades can be verified by the account report.

Be aware that if I post a trade late I will post my actual entry price and exit price and can verify the time if you are interested. There may be a little disparity between the two accounts as I am manually placing the orders and stops and they have different spreads.

The smaller account allows for trading the spot gold and spot silver markets as well as the South African Rand (Usd/Zar) where the FXCM $5385 does not. I will be taking gold and silver and USD/ZAR trades on the smaller accounts.

My current positions consist of:

Position
Pair
Entry
Stop Loss
Current
Long
Usd/Jpy
117.3
116.42
117.69
Short
XAU (gold)
550.6
552.90
551.00
Short
Eur/Usd
1.2078
1.2109
1.1979
Short
Usd/Zar
6.2729
6.3299
6.3034
Long
Usd/Chf
1.3144
1.3115
1.3160
Short
Gbp/Usd
1.7337
1.7400
1.7361


Current Equity
$494.33

Current P/L
$0.69

Eur/Aud breakout

The Eur/Aud broke down below support and confirmed a test of the triangle formed over the past month. I am expecting the full run down to 100% retracement on the fibonaccis and the bottom of the channel. A stop near the 38.2 fibonacci line would give a nice risk to reward of nearly 3.5 to 1. CCI is confirming the trend, entering into the lower reversal zone and the oscillator trending itself.

For those part of the email list, you already are aware, I did not enter the Aussie trade. If you are interested in receiving email updates send an email to actsofforex@gmail.com and ask to be part of the email. If not watch for further updates.

Aud/Usd Fibonacci 

Aussie Down Under

Much to the chagrin of gold enthusiasts, gold has pulled back over the past 5-10 days and showing uncertainty in the advance in the past 4 days.  The AUD is following in uncertainty and indecision.  We have a cross over on the MACD and a downward trending RSI.  If the AUD/USD continues down, I would expect a move 0.7241 or 110 pip move from where we are at right now.  I feel I am jumping the gun a little bit with the breakout action on the aussie has occurred after the close of the day and before the Australian market opened.  The risk to reward is good with a stop loss at 0.7410.  There is some support near 0.7275 that would justify a tightening of the stop loss or profit taking if the pair reaches 0.7275.

Knowledge is like money.

Knowledge is like money; the more he gets, the more he craves.- Josh Billings

That being said, I hope that to this point the ready has got some knowledge and some money and craves more as I do.  The bonus in currencies is the better your knowledge the more money you can get (then crave).

There is the philosophy for the day now for the set up.

The CHF/JPY formed and broke out from a double bottom formation on 1/24.  It was a nice confirming break as it paused right at the top of the middle peak and broke to the topside well beyond the 10% break I usually look for.  The double bottom’s target shows 190 pip target (yellow line).  It is interesting to see that the target puts us right to previous resistance.  There was a small pull back today, which could turn into a reversal.  I would like to see Monday as an up day before entering this trade.  If Monday is stable and positive, the entry will be close on Monday or at 92.25, whichever comes first.  Stop loss originally being set at 91.40 (10% of the mid channel defined by the Fibonacci lines).  This is a little aggressive on the initial entry due to the 1.7 to 1 risk to reward ratio and a possible bearish divergence developing on the CCI.  If the pair does not move up with any commitment, I will scrap the trade and wait for clarification.  If the entry price puts me into the trade, I will watch for an approach to 93.25 (distance targeted by the double bottom).  If the pair slows at resistance at all, I will tighten my stop into profitable territory maybe 92.75, locking in 50 pips with the potential of a break through to the next target near 94.25.  The 94.25 would give us a 200 pip movement and some interest payments on this pair.  Monday’s price movement will define this trade.  See Chart.

The Eur/Aud has formed a 300 pip double top.  This pair pays good interest and has a long term down trend.  With an additional 40 pip move to the down side, I will enter this trade targeting the remaining 260 pips and hope it takes its time reaching the target as I get paid interest every day.  There appears to be a 3 to 1 risk to reward placing the stop loss near 1.6190.  See other Chart.

Have a great weekend!

Chf/Jpy Double Bottom 

Eur/Aud Double Top 

Newsletter? Updates? Something New?

Beginning of something more?
I am considering a weekly newsletter and occasionally sending out midweek emails when updating my blog. The newsletter will have additional insight not just trades but will be less dynamic in regards to trades with the blog still looking at trades specifically. If you are interested in receiving an email newsletter and occasional blog update notifications, or know someone that is, please send an email to actsofforex@gmail.com listing the email you would like me to use and I will place you on the list.

45 minutes to blast off

We are 45 short minutes away from Alan Greenspan’s final hurrah as Chairman of the FOMC.  Coincidentally, many are speculation on interest rates and the new captain taking the helm.  Because of the volatility expected from the meeting there are a couple of strategies to consider.  The Eur/Usd is extremely interest rate sensitive.  The Euro has climbed 60 pips in anticipation of the announcement.  One may consider placing interest orders both sides of the current rate of 1.2176, 50 or more pips out, in this way, it doesn’t matter which direction the rates go as long as it is a significant move, the trade could be profitable.  Another technique would be to buy exotic or fixed rate options placing one-touch positions out over 100 pips assuming a run one direction or the other.  This will work if and only if the payout on one direction is higher than the cost on both of the one-touch options.  The Aud/Usd will also be affected as many investors move to gold as a hedge against interest rates, if interest rates go up, the investors will run back to the interest rate or USD if interest rates stay the same or go down than the investors will stick with gold.  Once again the straddled entry technique or exotic options could also be used on the Aud/Usd, keep in mind the Aussie does not move as much as the Euro so you will want to tighten up the options and/or entry positions.

Tightening stops before the weekend

USD/CAD really hasn't moved since the entry price. Tightening to 1.1675. EUR/AUD is paying us the interest so I won't be tightening it as much but still tightening to 1.6155.

Short the USD/CAD

Took the short position on the USD/CAD at 1.1620. 100 pip stop loss, targetting 1.1420 over the next 2 weeks. Resetting Eur/Aud short position to 1.6090

Quick scalp or long trade watch

For the aggressive scalper, you may be interested in jumping into the USD/CAD short for a 20 to 30 pip swing in an hour or so.  For the more conservative longer-term trader, watch for a close below 1.1600.  Remember this could be volatile due to Canadian elections.  I am still pro commodity-based currency pairs, such as the USD/CAD short and the AUD/USD long.  With a little push post elections, I would not be surprised to see the USD/CAD got to 1.1400 easily if not down to 1.1300 over the next 2 weeks.  Keep an eye on these commodity currencies

Give me break

It has been a volatile few weeks with few strong signals but now we are looking for some big move breakouts.

As you know I am a fan of trading the Eur/Aud short when I am justified to trade it short.  I have been waiting for this head and shoulders pattern to complete.  I wanted a close below 1.6130 and we got the close below yesterday. (see image below)

Because this pattern is looking for 200 pips and gets paid 1 pip a day in interest, I like the set up and continuation of the pattern today.  I am entered the trade at 1.6116.  Even though the pair has moved down significantly I would still feel comfortable with a 1.6042 entry and a target of 1.5920.  You will notice there are only 122 pips left in the move.  I still like it.  I am not putting a limit on this trade as of yet, but I will be adjusting my 125 pip stop loss as we get closer and into the pattern a little further.

I think we are going to have a great opportunity to short the USD/CAD in the next couple of days.  Keep an eye on that pair.

The GBP/JPY may be setting up a head and shoulders to go short.  If we close below 200.35 in the next week, we could hope for nearly 600 pip move on that pair.  If not a break down I will watch for a close above 204.50 and go for 300 pips plus interest to the top side.

Eur/Aud Head and Shoulders